Investment Decision Framework

Historical Thinking Assessment

• Have I studied how similar products/services evolved in advanced markets?
• What historical patterns from comparable sectors might apply here?
• Which past disruptions in similar industries can inform this investment?
• Have I identified where this company/sector is in its development timeline?
• What "time machine" insights from other markets suggest about future performance?

Cyclical Analysis

• Where are we in the economic cycle (expansion, peak, contraction, trough)?
• How does this asset class typically perform in the current and next likely cycle phase?
• Is this sector counter-cyclical or highly correlated with economic cycles?
• Are there industry-specific cycles affecting this investment beyond economic cycles?
• Am I buying near a cyclical bottom or selling near a cyclical peak?

Long-Term Viability Evaluation

• Does this investment have compounding characteristics over a 3-5+ year horizon?
• Can this business model sustain its competitive advantage for a decade or longer?
• Is short-term volatility causing others to miss the long-term value proposition?
• Have I assessed this opportunity with a business owner's perspective rather than a trader's?
• Does my investment thesis require short-term market movements, or will time validate it?

Network Effect Analysis

• How do information flows and interconnections affect this investment's prospects?
• Does this business benefit from network effects as it scales?
• Have I mapped the relationships between this company and its suppliers/customers/competitors?
• What second and third-order effects might emerge from current market trends?
• How might information cascades or social dynamics impact this investment's performance?

Psychological Bias Check

• Am I being influenced by recency bias or overweighting recent information?
• Have I sought out disconfirming evidence against my investment thesis?
• Am I being swayed by crowd psychology rather than fundamental analysis?
• Is loss aversion preventing rational decision-making about existing positions?
• Have I distinguished between actual risks and emotional reactions to market volatility?

Value Assessment

• Does this investment offer a significant margin of safety between price and intrinsic value?
• Am I operating within my circle of competence with this investment?
• Would I be comfortable owning this entire business at the current market capitalization?
• Is Mr. Market offering an emotional discount rather than a fundamental reassessment?
• Does this business have durable competitive advantages protecting its margins?

Demand Potential Evaluation

• Does this company satisfy existing consumer demands better than alternatives?
• Is this business creating entirely new consumer demands or categories?
• Does the product/service evolve from "nice to have" to "must have" status?
• Can this demand sustain and grow over a 5-10 year horizon?
• Does the company have opportunities to expand its demand through adjacent markets?

Final Integration Questions

• Do insights from multiple mindsets converge to support this investment decision?
• Have I identified key conflicts between different mindset assessments?
• Does the investment thesis rely on exceptional performance in only one dimension?
• Have I determined which mindsets are most relevant for this particular investment type?
• Am I allowing one strong mindset advantage to overshadow critical weaknesses in others?